Comments on: A Black Hat Sneak Preview (Part 1 of ?)

By: A Black Hat Sneak Preview (Part 2 of ?) « The New School of Information Security

Thu, 16 Jul 2009 11:01:21 +0000

[...] up on my previous post, here’s Part 2, “The Factors that Drive Probable Use”. This is the meat of our [...]

By: An Example of Our Previous Graph In Action « The New School of Information Security

Mon, 13 Jul 2009 17:50:34 +0000

[...] wanted to throw it out here as an example of how you would the model from my earlier post in real life. So let’s take the recently released Internet Explorer security vulnerability [...]

By: Patrick Florer

Patrick Florer — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 02:25:57 +0000

Hi, Alex -

Fair enough – I look forward to part 2.

By: Alex

Alex — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 01:21:12 +0000

Hi Patrick!

I wouldn’t spend much time just on the hype cycle. We’re using it as a presupposition, yes, but really only to say that *something* causes *some* sort or adoption curve. Not having the $$$ to find out the hows & whys of the Gartner HC, but it being fairly well known, we decided to use it as a reference point.

By: Patrick Florer

Patrick Florer — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 16:32:38 +0000

Dave/Alex -

I have looked at the link on hype cycles, and even though, as a general set of observations about technology adoption, it rings somewhat true with my own experience, I don’t really see how one could consider it a methodology.

Since no data are provided to explain the specific shape of the lines, it requires something of an act of faith for me to buy into it.

Perhaps Gartner has data on its web site, but unfortunately, in order to learn more, you have to be a Gartner subscriber, which I am not.

Hopefully, you and Alex will be able to provide something convincing to help me out.

Patrick

By: Patrick Florer

Patrick Florer — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 15:20:45 +0000

Thanks, Dave -

FYI – we met briefly at Source Boston, and I trained in FAIR with Alex and Jack Jones last December in Columbus.

Best,

Patrick

By: Security Briefing – July 7th : Liquidmatrix Security Digest

Security Briefing – July 7th : Liquidmatrix Security Digest — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 15:05:23 +0000

[...] A Black Hat Sneak Preview (Part 1 of ?) – New School of Information Security [...]

By: David Mortman

David Mortman — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 14:07:28 +0000

Patrick, Here's more info on the "Gartner Hype Cycle. The shape of the curves will vary from technology to technology, so this is more of a gedankenexperiment if you will. We can generate more specific curves but that requires gathering data which we will be discussing in greater detail in later posts. Additionally, Adam has posted regularly here and at Emergent Chaos on the need for more data (not to mention the book).

By: Patrick Florer

Patrick Florer — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 17:47:12 +0000

Hello, Alex (and Dave) -

A legend for the graph would be helpful.

The x axis appears to have something to do with time, but the unit of measurement is not stated. I have no idea what the y axis could mean.

(Low hanging fruit = 3 ??? at timepoint = 0.9 ???)

Also, for those of us not “in-the-know”, some background on the Gartner Hype cycle curve, and why you think it reasonable as a starting point, would be helpful. (I assume that there are data to back this up, hence the shape of the lines.)

Patrick